Perth’s property market has found itself at the centre of a familiar debate: is the market nearing its peak, or simply recalibrating?
Recent reporting from The West Australian is suggesting classic signs of a slowdown: listings have risen around 20% in the last four weeks, while sales volumes have eased by about 5%. At the same time, affordability is becoming more stretched after a sustained period of growth, naturally tempering buyer urgency at the margins. Historically, this combination suggests a softening in momentum, with some expecting price adjustment to follow. Yet broader commentary, including the latest REIWA market forecast, continues to point toward ongoing price growth.
There is logic in both views. Markets move in cycles, and shifts in supply and demand often precede changes in price growth. Affordability pressure is now part of that equation. But focusing only on short-term movements risks missing the broader context.
From a data perspective, values continue to rise. Cotality’s March Housing Report shows Perth dwelling values increasing 2.1% over the past month, with annual growth reaching 22.0%, the strongest of any capital city. Those numbers are strong, but they need context. Part of this growth reflects Perth coming off a lower base than the eastern states, where earlier cycles drove sharper increases. What is being seen now is both catch-up and genuine demand.
The more important story sits underneath. Despite the recent lift in listings, the market remains structurally undersupplied. Nationally, total listings are still around 14% lower than a year ago, with Perth among the tightest markets. That imbalance continues to support pricing.
Investor activity, while still present, is becoming more measured. As affordability tightens and conditions evolve, investor-driven segments are seeing less urgency. That is allowing owner-occupiers to play a more defining role in price setting. Well-located homes closer to the CBD continue to attract strong interest and multiple offers, even if intensity has eased. Outer, more price-sensitive areas are seeing softer demand, lengthening selling times and more measured decision-making.
Demand has not disappeared. It has changed shape. Twelve months ago, urgency was driven by fear of missing out. Today, buyers remain active but more considered. Depth is still there, but competition is more selective. That reflects a market becoming more disciplined, not weaker. While employment remains secure, sentiment is favourable and affordability maintained, demand will continue.
This is not a uniform market. It is a differentiated one. The idea of a single “peak” oversimplifies how property markets move. In reality, adjustment is gradual, shaped by supply, demand, sentiment and economic conditions.
Risk has not disappeared, but it has shifted. The question is no longer whether the market moves, but where and by how much. What matters is understanding how different parts of the market are performing and why. Right now, Perth is not defined by a single trend. It is defined by divergence - exactly what would be expected in a market where fundamentals are reasserting themselves.
This is a time for buyers and sellers to seek out experienced, expert advice.
This article was originally published in The Real Estate Conversation.